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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-04-15; City Council; Resolution 6152*l 4 ,< 2 3 4 5 6 7 e 9 1c 11 12 12 14 1: 1( 1'; 1E 1: 2c 21 2: 2: 24 2: 2( 2'; 2€ RESOLUTION NO. 6152 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING AN AGREE- MENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD AND THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS GROUP FOR CONSULTING SERVICES INVOLVING THE PREPARATION OF AN ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS FOR THE RANCHO CARRILLO J%ASTER PLAN REVISION. The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, does hereby resolve as follows: 1. That certain agreement between the City of Carlsbad and The Newport Economics Group for the preparation of an Economic and fiscal analysis of the proposed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan, attached hereto and marked Exhibit "l", and incorporated herein by reference, is hereby approved. 2. That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby authorized and directed to execute said agreement for and on behalf of the City of Carlsbad. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad held on the 15th day Of lpril , 1980, by the following vote, to wit: AYES: NOES: None Councilmen Packard, Anear, Lewis and Councilwomen Casler and Kulchin ABSENT: None RONALD C. PACKARD, Mayor CITY OF CARLSBAD ATTEST : 2 @QA2dA/X/NI ALETEA L. RAUTENKRANZ, City Clerk ] CITY OF CARLSBAD //// d- t 'a AGREE?4IENT .- I THIS AGREEMENT is nade this day of I 1980, between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a municipal. corporation and The Newport economics Group-hereinafter referred to as CONSULTANT. RECITALS : WHEREAS, the City has entered into an agreement with DAON Southwest, hereinafter called the "Applicant", wherein the Applicant agrees to allocate funds to the City for the provision of a Consultant to prepare the proposed project identified as an economic and fiscal analysis for the pro- posed Rancho Carrillo Plaster Plan whose boundaries are shown on the plat marked Exhibit "A", attached hereto and made a part hereof; and . WHEREAS, the Consultant has the qualifications to moni- tor and process the said economic. and fiscal analysis, . and EXHIBIT 9'1 TO RESOLUTION NO. ~153 c 25 ? <+ WHEREAS, The Consultant represents that neither he nor any member of his staff has performed any work on the proposed project as a private consultant and has. no understanding with the Applicant or any expectation of working for the Applicant in the future on said project and has not been employed by the applicant upon any project within two years last past; and WHEREAS, it is understood that the Consultant shall be an independent contractor of the City; NOW, TKEREFOEZE, in consideration of their mutual conven- ants and conditions, the parties hereto agree as fol1ov.l~: (1) DUTIES OF THE CONSULTANT: Con-sultant shall prepare . the econonic and fiscal analysis as directed by .the Flanning Director.. Consultant shall be working for the City only and all consultant findings will be made to the City planning staff and not directly to the Applicant. In carryinq out this oSligation the Consultant s duties shall include the following: The Consultant shall complete the economic and fiscal analysis within ten (10) weeks of contract execution. Consultans analysis shall conform to the proposal attached as Exhibit B, and incorporated.,herein by reference. Consultant shall meet with the Planning Director or his designated staff as required during.the -2- .* . e execution of the contract; The Consultant shall meet with the various City departmenta as may be necessary to com- plete the analysis. Consultant shall be prepared to attend up to four (4) public hearings and shall answer any questions that may arise with regard to the economic and fiscal analysis. The Consultant shall prepare the final economic and fiscal analysis report after approval by the City Couficil. The Consultant shall meet the time lines out- lined in Section 7 of this agreement. The Consultant shall file a conflict of interest statement with the City Clerk's Office, gories A, C, and E). (Cate- DUTIES OF THE CITY (a) The City will make payment to the Consultant as provided for in this agreement. The City will make available to the Consultant any document, studies, or other information in its possession related.to the proposed (b) project. The City will review the Consultant's com.ents on the proposed economic and fiscal analysis (c) within twelve (12) worl:i.ng c?,ays of their receipt (d) City staff will meet with the Consultant as rnay be required by the Planning Director. (3) TEPJ1IP;IATION OF AGREE?,IENT The City may terminate this Agreement at any time by giving written notice to the Consultant of such termination and specifying the effective date thereof, at least fifteen (15) days before the effective date of such termination. In that event, all finished or unfinished documents anc? .other materials prepared pursuant to this I?-greement shall, at the optioln of the City, become its property. (4) RELEASE OF INFOFJ,'ATION BY CONSULTANT Any reports, information or other data, prepared or assembled by the Consultant under this Agreement shall not be made available to any individual or organization by the Consultant without the prior (5) written approval of the City. OKNERSHIP , PUBLICATION, REPRODUCTION AND USE OF FISCAL REPORTS AND OTHER P'iATERIAL All document's and materials prepared pursuant to this agreement are the property of the City. City shall have the unrestricted authority to publish, disclose, distribute and otherwise use, in whole or in part, any reports, data, or other materials prepared under this agreement. The 0 a * (6) PAYMENT The Consultant will be paid a maximum of $18,500.00 dollars for all work necessary to carry out the requirements of this agreement. Actual payment shall be based on the cost of tb.e report based on the costs as set forth in Exhibit "B". The Consul- tant shall be paid sixty percent (60%) of the com- pensable services completed within fifteen days after receipt of the invoice for the completion of the preliminary economic and fiscal analysis report. The Consultant shall be paid the I thirty percent (30%) of the contract price within fifteen days after the receipt of the invoice for the final Economic and Fiscal Analysis. The final ten percent (10%) of the contract will be paid to the Consultant within thirty (30) days of City Council acceptance of the Economic and Fiscal Analysis of the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan. (7) TIME OF COMPLETION Time is of the essence in carrying out the terms of this Agreement. The Consultant shall be responsible for the following completion dates: (a) Ten (10) copies of a preliminary economic and fiscal analy'sis report shall be submitted to the city within (6) weeks of the execution of this contract. -5- (b) Thirty (30) copies of the final economic and fiscal analysis report shall be submitted by the Consultant within ten (10) weeks of the execution of this contract. The Consultant will be allowed additional days as are necessary to compensate for days lost due to City or Applicant actions or inter- actions which affect the Consultant's progress. LIMITS OF THE OBLIGATION The limits of the obligation of the City under this Agreement is in the sum of $18,500.00 which amount is estimated to be sufficient to compensate the Consultant for all services performed hereunder during the terms of this Agreement. at any time it appears to the Consultant that said sum may not be sufficient, he shall immediately so notify the Planning Director. He will not perform any work or incur any obligation beyond said sum of $18,500.00 without appropriate amendment to this Agreement. In the event (9) HOLD HARMLESS The Consultant will indemnify the City against and hold it harmless from all and any cost, expense, or liability for damages on account of injury 0; death to persons or damage to property resulting from or arising out of or in any way connected with the per- formance by Consultant of this Agreement, including -6- the defense of any action arising therefrom,. sultant will reimburse the City for a11 costs, expen- ses and losses incurred by it in consequent of,any Con- claims, demands and causes of action which may be brought against it by a person arising out of the performance by Consultant of this Agreement. (10) MAINTAIN INSURANCE Consultant shall, at all times that this Agreement is in effect or the premises are occupied by Con- sultant, cause to be maintained in force and effect, an insurance policy or policies which will insure and indemnify both City and 'Consultant against liability or financial loss resulting from injuries, occurring to persons or property in or about the premises or occurring as a result of any acts or activity of consultant. insurance policy shall be not less than $100,000 for any one person injured or $300,000 for any one accident and $50,000 for property damage. The policy shall be written by a responsible company or companies to be approved by City, and shall be noncancelable. except on ten days' written notice to City. a copy of such policy shall be filed with the Plan- The liability under such Such policy shall name City as co-insured and ning Department. (11) INDEPENDENT CONTRACTOR Consultant in accordance with his status as an independent contractor, convenants .- and agrees that he will conduct himself consistent with such status, that he will neither hold himself out as nor claim to be an officer or employee of the City by reason hereof, make any claim, demand, or application to or for any right or privilege applicable to an officer or employee of the City including, but not limited to, workmen's compensation coverage, unemployment insurance benefits, social security coverage, or retirement membership credit. (12) ASSIGNMENT OF CONTRACT Consultant shall not assign this contract or any part thereof or any monies due or to become due thereunder without the prior written consent of the City. (13) SUBCONTRACTING If the Consultant shall subcontract any of the work to be performed under this contract by Consultant, the Consultant shall be fully responsible to the City for the acts and omissions of its subcontractor and of the persons either directly or .indirectly 1 employed by its subcontractor, as it is for the acts and omissions of persons directly employed by it. , -8- ...4 Nothing contained in this contract shall create any contractural relationship between any subcon- tractor or Consultant and th-e City. The consultant shall bind every subcontractor and.every subcon- tractor of a subcontractor by the terms of this contract applicable to its work unless specifically noted to the contrary in the subcontract in question approved in writing by the City. (14) PROHIBITED INTEREST No official of-the City who is authorized in such capacity and on behalf of the City to negotiate, make, accept or approve, or'to take part in nego- tiating, making, accepting or approving any architectural, engineering, inspection, construction, or material supply contract or any subcontract in connection with the construction of the project, shall become directly or indirectly interested per- sonally in this contract or in any part thereof. officer, employee, architect, attorney, engineer or inspector of or for the City who is authorized in such capacity and on behalf of the City to exercise any executive, supervisory or other similar functions in connection with the performance of this'contract shall become directly or indirectly interested per- sonally in this contract or any part thereof. No -9- 0 <. ~ (15) VERBAL I AGREEMENT OR CONVERSATION No verbal agreement or conversation with any officer, agent or employee of the City, either before, during or after the execution of this contract, shall affect or modify any of the tksms or obligations herein contained, such verbal agreement or conversation entitle the Consultant to any additional payment what- soever under the terms of this contract. nor IN WITNESS WHEREOF, The parties hereto have executed this Agreement on the day and year first above written. CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal Corporation of the State of California ATTEST : BY . City Attorney .”+ .. .L . .- . RA ICHO c RR L 0 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS A RESEARCH PROPOSAL’ FEBRUARY 1980 Prepared for: CITY OF CARLSBAD 1200 ELM AVENUE CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA 92008 .- \. Prepared by: THE NElJPORT ECONOMICS GROUP 500 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 350 NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92660 (71 4) 640-0755 ~y~~:~nq-J &hl FE6 15 1980 emcnt * .2 . February 74, 1980 - Mr. James C. Hagaman - Planning Director City of Carl sbsd .1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, Ca7 i forni a 92008 Dear Mr. tiagaman: Enclosed is our proposdl for the. Rancho Carrillo Economic and Fiscal Impact Report. the Carlsbad Oaks study we performed in 1977. The scope of the' study and the methodology parallel . We look forward to discussing this proposal with you in detail, . Sincerely, Presidcnt Enclosure . i TABLE OF CONTENTS . INTRODUCTION ............................ 1 PROPOSED NORK PROGRAM: Phase I - Economic Impact Analysis. 5 Phase I1 - lYiunicipal Economic Impact Analysis ......... 8 .............. TIME SCHECIULE AND ESTIVATED COSTS ................. 13 CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUDIES ................... 14 .. .. .. i , i .. J - INTRODUCTION The primary objectives of the requested analysis are lo test the economic and fiscal Feasibility of a Master Plan for Rancho Carrillo. the study methodology for this report will provide a methodology and data base which will be applicable to similar comxnunity analysis. Additionally, . The l1e;rpor-t Ecoilomics Group has, during the past 8 years, conducted 60 studies related to this type of feasibility analysis for the public and private sector. are a nunlber of key requirements essential for the study. the following: 1 To provide the typ2 of meaningful results desired, there Examples include A. Econonic Analysis I. A Sophistjcated Land Use Forecast - 2. .* In the dynamics of the urban growth scenarios 0-7 Southern California, meaningful land use forecasts are particularly important. being equal, it is apparent that the accuracy will fluctuate in an inverse ratio to the time span covered. to establish ranges of probable activity wherein one may set confi- dence limits as to the actual occurrences. The key issue will, of course, be the rates of absorption for various land use categories on the property. For each, a most probable absorption must be ac- companied by a rceaningful range indicating the scope of possibility ut?der varying economic conditions. The Implications of Error. Following the determination of high and low sets of probable activity, it is particularly important to understand imp1 ications to the pub1 ic facility feasibility should variations in the absorption rates occur. All else. However, it is important > 3. 4. 5. B. 1. In other words the "what if" question series niust be analyzed in relat'on to the effect on the decision-making process for the City of Carlsbad. -_- The Jinpcwtance of Land Use Balance - Assuming the probabi 1 ity of varyi ng absorption rates, the second major concept re?ates to the reasonableness and economic balance of the end product. A number of tests relative to ecdnoinic com- patibility should be applied carefully. 'The Synthesis of I Theoretical Demand Versus -- Actual Absorption- The land use fcrecast must carefully relate the elenients of potential, theoretical dewand to determine potential land uses under varying sets of circumstances sersus a detai 1 ed analysis of all actual absorption for land uses throughout the region. term trends, cyclical forces, irregular inf!uencos and -- often of grzat importance -- the intanyibl e el ement.'of the public's attitude must be considered. The Importance of Market Strategy A key element in overall absorption relates to the developer's market strategy. those goals, the degree of aggressiveness afid the level of sophistica- tion can all be key elements in determining the final outcome. Those elements relative to long The goals to be utilized, the scope of effort to achieve -.-- Fiscal Analysis The Strategic Importance of Cost A1 location Methodology One of the most Smportant and often the most problematical elements of a fiscal impact study relates to cost allocation. issues of revenue assignm6nt are clear cut. can be a different niatter. do nat provide the level of detail required to accurately assign costs to relatively small units of the city. similar. Generally, the The question of costs Typically, inunicipal accounting systems Special district .data may- be It is particularly important to consult extensively with city staff, to outlinc clearly the alternative methodologies ava-i’lable and to insure agreement on the part of all persons in- volved relative to the system to be used. 2. ‘The l’iarg-inal Cost Concept The most COJiiVOl-iplaCe methodology for fiscal impact studies assigns prevai 1 i ng average costs to exi sting sectors of the corrununi ty as well as planned, new areas. Often, the cconom.ies or diseconomies of scale tend to create a significant gap between prevailing average costs arid true marginal costs. During the .past few years, niunicipal costs have risen substantiafly more than in proportion to the rate of growth of many cities involved. are two key elements-which have brought this about. Therefore, it is particularly important to disaggregate budgeted cost increases to thoroughly understand the probable real costs of serving added areas throughout a cormunity. Inflation and upgraded services 3. Sales Tax A1 1 ocation Kethodol ogy- While most revenues may be assjgned without difficulty to appropriate land uses, the sales tax poses a question of philosophy. such revenues are assigned to the comcrcial sector -- a system which does not allow for adjustment in the event of added residential develop- ment without added comercial. Similarly, if all such revenues are assigned to the residential sector, the addition of new commercial Typically, could not be accounted for in the revenue model. experience, TNG believes that the origin of the funds should dictate the placement of credit. expenditures of city residents should be. assigned back to their sector. Revenues spent by visitors, tourists or any other non-residents should be assigncd to the coinmercial sector. By this methodology, the system will allow for increases in any sector of the economy without dis- tortion. On the basis of long That is, sales tax revenues derived from 0 c 4. The Cost Versus Quality of Available Serv-iJes _r_ It is mandatory to -init,ially establish a cost of existing services in relation to their relative level of quality. A realistic appraisal must bc made to determjne whethhcr prevai 7 ing costs are appropriate for the assignment to neer, developing areas. to coniparisons wi th comparabf e comnuni tics Considerations may relate discussions with staff, planning coxmission or city council, or comparison with a set of traditional ly desi red standards. , PROPOSED WORK PK0GRAt.J The foflowing paragraphs ws’ll provid.2 a brief outline of the key el einents involved in the requested work program. PHASE X - ECONO!4IC IflPACT REPORT --I The initial phase of the study will involve an analysis and projection of the economic impact of the properly on the local and regional housing markets. key factors, an annualized absorption for the specified land LIS~S will be determined . Based on the projected jeniand, supply, market strategy and other A. Housing ?- 3. Demand - An analysis and projection of. population/households sex factors, inconie, errploymznt, propensity tc purchase versus rent and related factcrs In the North County area and the Rancho Carrillo sector. Of particular importance wi 11 be market segmentation relative to thz demand for primary housing, secofid homes, resort houslng and retirement units. will be schedules indicating probable absorption by type, density, occupaixy status, general size and related factors, Supply - An Analysis of present and probable future projects similar and/or competitive in scope to the project. be made of location, probable offering, timing, price rdnges and re7 atcd. age, The end product of this analysis Detailed analyses will Market Strategy - An analysis of the probable corporate goals, degree of aggressiveness, strength of merchandising, degree of sophistication and other factors which will determine probable relatiye strength in the marketplace for Rancho Carrillo. e 0 * 4. _I__- Conclusion - R scrics of projections for the project in terms of ranges under varying a1 ternative assumptions as to the zbsorption rates for each type of planned housing project throughout the development. most prohabl - e projection versus the --- conceivable highs and lows which coul d occur under varyi ng econoini c condi ti ons . , ;, , Again, it is important to emphasize the use of the t B. Commercial Facilities .. 1. Demand - An analysis and projection of all economic elements relative to the demand for commercial space .including retail, restaurants, service Faci 7 i ti es and general purpose or medical / dental office space. Indicators to be examined would include resident and visitor purchasing power, projected distribution of retail/service expenditures, office-related employment expansion and other factors. The end product of this phase of the study would be an annualized schedule of demand for space in each of the relevant covmrcial categories. 2. Supply - An ana:ysis of the present and ant-icipated future supply of compptitive facilities in terms of location, land use mix, evident strength and impact on the property. 3. MatAket Strateqy a..- - A determination of the apparent strategy to be uti1 ized by Rancho Carril lo management to merchandise ccmmercial facil i tics. The aggressiveness and’ degree of sophistication in- volved wSll have a critical impact on the potential absorption . of these land uses. 4. Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a schedule of probable absorption for each of the proposed comniercial land uses at Rancho Carrillo would be prepared with a most probable level versus the potential highs ana lows. .% c. 1. Demand - An analysis and projection of economic factors pertinent to the demand for pl ann& recreational faci 1 i ties . Key factors will concern projected participation rates among residents in addi tion to the potential for non-resident patronage (as deeinecl desii-able). planned. ) Supply - Analysis of the present and anticipated future supply of competitive Facilities in ternis of lpcation, market strength, lznd available and tctal impact on the property. Market Strategy - Planned operating methods, whether by the community association, private grosp, semi-private or other should be considered, Cclncfusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, reconimen- dations as to the -appropriate mix of recreational faci 1 i ti es woul d be made - including phasing and land requirements. (A determinant only if non-resident participation is 2. 3. .. 4. \ This phase of the study will analyze in detail the economic and fiscal iinpact of the plan. costs, foll owed by capital expenditure requirements and revenues. A. Service RequirementsJCosts __ First, will be considered the service levels and 1. Quantitative Factors - The initial phase of this section of the report will involve an analysis or' the physical requirements for service to the new area and the cost levels involved, as follows: a. Trend Analysis - The municipal and various special district budgets will be anaJyzed over time to determine appropriate per unit (per acre/pcr dwelling unit) costs for varying sectors of the planned new area. As mentioned, it will be particularly important to differentiate the elements of cost increases as to rea7 marginal costs, inflation, upgrading of services and related factors. Consultation with Agency Staff - It will be mandatory to consult at l,ength with each operating de2artment of the City and the special districts relative to service require- b. ments and costs for Rancho Carrillo, As indicated, municipal accounting systems generally do not allow precise cost break- downs in terms of varying land uses. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain additional data as to operations. For exampl e, many pol i ce and f i re departments have computerized response data which indicates their exact workload, the location, the type of land use involved and the cost involved. * From this information, realistic estimates can be made for servicing expanded areas of the City. Rancho Carrillo as'a Unique Sector - A significant amount of the analysis of service levels and respective costs will relate to the manner in which Raticho Carrillo may be differentiated from the balance of Car'lsbad. A careful review of the existing c, 4 d. e. .. niunici pal budget vroul d a1 9 ow gener41 estimates of unj t costs for seyvlng the iqrylng types of :and uses in the City. However, ther may we11 he significant changes in these elements relative to planried new ilreas. Variations in Service Requirements - As outlined under the land use analysis, consideration must be given to the implications of vary'ing service requirements related to conceivable variations in the rate of absorption of land uses. rates of use may be considered, it yill be particularly important While the most probable to consider the necessary reactions to market activities which either speed up or slow down developxent of the project. Bond financing requirements tion with respect to timing, Services to be Covered - The analysis will cons-ider - all services now made available by the City and the special distrjcts. Addition- ally, consideration may well be given to added facilities and/or services which the City and/or agencies may now be considering. sultation with staff will deteymine those areas which should be added to the existing spectrum. for example, can be a critical considera- Con,- 2. Qualitative Factors This phase of the study will consider the existing quality level of services to provide a comparison with prcvailjng per unit costs. a. Present Standards - A comprehensive analysis of present service standards throughout the City and the special districts. Coinparison of Service Levels - An analysis of those prevailing in relation to coinparabl e Southern California communi tics to identify similarities and/or major differentials. b. c. Municipal/Aqcncy Policies - A review of a71 studies, docunwnts, policies and proposals for changes in service levels and/or upgraded services throughout the community. -9- *. d. _._____I__ Discussions with Staff - An exploration with municipal/agency staff relative to desired changes and the incorporation of such changes in the study. *. e. Specific Services for .- Rancho Carrillo - An analysis of con- ceivablc changeslrevisions in service 1 ever standards which would be particularly applicable to the property. f. Determination --__ of Service Level RequSrements - A study to determine whether existing services should be applied or to what extent new service levels and their corresponding CGS~S will be applicable. Of particular importance in this phase of the study will be consideration of the implications in- volved in changed and/or upgraded service levels for Rancho Carrillo. B. Projected Capital Facil i ty Expenditures This phase of the report will consider the capital requirements 2nd their respective costs as follows: 7. Capital Requircments - An analysis and projection of all municipal and special distr-izt physical requireiiients through build-out of Rancho Carrillo. Covered in the analysis will be items as police/ fire substations, parks , streets, uti1 i ty systems, schools , libraries and any other pertinent investments in the community infrastructure. 2. Responsible Party - An analysis of each expenditure in terms of . the parties to construct and to fund the project. On-site re- quirements will be generally those of the developers, though special water/sewer system or other items may require agency investment agreements, shared costs and related factors. '3. Public P,gency Financiig_ - For those investnients to be provided by pub1 ic agencies, an analysis of the most appropriate financing vehicles must be considered to include bonding, special assessment districts, tax rates or other factors. Consideration must, in addition, be given to the potential for participation by other agencies in terms of grints or loans including the federal govern- ment, the-state of the County of San Dicgo. > 4. Cost Allocation .- - There may well be circumstances where financial respons5hil ity for particular investments must be shared among Rancho Carrillo and other areas. a1 ternatl’ve allocation schemes to identify the most appropriate for each particular i nvestment . An analysis will be made of C. Municipal Revenues - This phase of the report will consist of an analysis and projection of revenues to accrue to the municipality and the special districts from the existing and proposed sections of Rancho Carrillo as fo?- a1 ows : 1. 2. Revenuesper Unit - A determination of the most appropriate per dwelling unit and/or per acre revenues to be derived from each budgeted item. Revenues as property and sales tax may be pre- cisely determined for each individual project. However, a number cf other revenues must utilize the per unit averages in the absence of specific data. Sales Tax Allocation - As mentioned, the philosophy utilized in the allocation of sales tax revenues wil materially affect the‘ apparent fiscal impact of indivi’dual res dential or commercial developinents. The key factors in this a location should be the origin of the funds which produce the tax revenues. D.- Cost/Revsnue Projections Based on the foregoing sets of analysis, the cost/revenue balance for each phase of the proposed project will be prepared. precise format may be determined at a later date, TWG has found that determination of the cost/revenue balance at five year intervals and -- most importantly -- upon completion of all improvernents -is the most meaningful. While the The final report will provide a documented summary of all assumptions, ca’l cuf ati ons and concl usions . Of pal-ticul ar importance wi 17 be the policy quest-ions concerning the project to be resolved by the planning coinmission and the city council. In addition, the report will provide a written methodology on the land use and fiscal irnpact analysis to allow staff the opportunity to provide necessary revisions in the report at a later date and to allow use of the economic/fiscal models for other community developnierit plans. -1 2- TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATE COSTS I Time Schedul e The report can be completed withir! a 12 week time frame, the went of prolonged delays, requested revision in the report or the requirement for extensive revisions in the land use plan to provide acceptable marketability; would the time frame exceed this Only in i \ period. wet Requirements .. The econonic and fiscal impact studies would be performed for a inaximum budget of $78,500. Precise costs will be contingent upon a number of factors as the availability of data and the number of public presentations required. -1 3- 1 - CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUDIES ' .' - 7. City of Newport Beach .. fisca.1 impact analysis system, contact Bob Lcnard (64 0-22'1 8) 2. City of Palm Springs - fiscal impact analysis system, contact Murre11 Crurnp - now with City of Palm Gesert (346-0611) I 3, San Antonjo Chamber of Commerce - fiscal impact analysis system, contact Kathy Obrjotti (512/227-8181). 4. The Irvine Company - numerous.marketing and fiscal impact studies, contact Earl Timriions (644-301 1 ) 5. The Lusk Company - numerous marketing and fiscal .impact studies, contact Don Steff ensen (557-8220) Studies now underway include a major economic impact analysis and projection for the city of Indio. . THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS. GROUP Q U A L I FI C A T IO N S A N D EX PE XI EN C E The I?eqort Economics Group, Inc., formed i51 1971,. is a professional research and consulting firm offering services in the fields of general economic analysis on a national and regional basis, market research, development planning, financial analysis, and fiscal impact studies. lh&ag the firm’s first 8 years of operationJ 350 studies have been completed for over 100 clients in 12 states from Florida to Hawaii. Principals of the firm are able to offer the unique combination of extens<ve backgrounds in govement and private im’ustry combined with mmxqel7i:ent expefience in national corporations. The Neqort Ecormnics Group, Inc. is fimly comztfed to the goal of providing clients with the economic tools and strategies that will Zead to the completion of suecessfuZ projects. , YIlE h’ENPORT ECOBOMICS GROUP REi022ESE PJTA TI VE CL IEA’SZ’S Business Firms /tmc?riccm ?$at iona Z Ho us i q, Nctqor t Beach Anaheim fii ZZs, Inc., Anaheim krosa Ea‘e bpme.rzt’ and Management, Inc., Ncwport Beach Avco Comiuizity DeueZopcrs, Im., San Diego i172e Berghecr Coripany, Saxta Ana Bizby ,Panch Company, Los AngeZes BreZaccr, Im., Irvine ’ DonuZd L. Bren Co., Los AngeZes Chevron Land and Owe Zopment Co. , Sm Francisco CoZdwe Z 7, Banker Management Corporation, Newport Beach CovingLon Bros. Construction Co, , EtdZerton C”urci-Tuiener Company, JTcwpor-i; Beach Dam Deve Zopment Corporation, New port Beach Deane Deve Zopment Company, Newport Be&& Desert Inn Mote Zs, Lancaster VaZt Esney VorZd, 02?Zando, FZorida Fisher Land Corporation, Fresno Frepes Jacque Restaurant Co., Inc., Neuport Beach Joe E. Fritz & Co., AZbzquerqu-=, New Hezico Fw-ita-U. S. A., Santa Monica Genstm Development, Inc., San Francisco GfeZZer Dcve Zopment Company, Inc., Irvine Great Lakes Properties, Inc., Torrance . E. W. liahn, Inc., Los AngeZes The .Tiwine Company, Newport Beach KAcor ReaZty , Oak Zand Kaufman and Broad, Inc., Irvine Land Resources, Inc., Iiew Yor?c City Leadership flousing Systems, Inc., Sa2 Diego me Luck Couipany, Net@o?t Beach The WiZZiam Lyon Co., Newport- Beach Maui Tknd arzd PincappZe Co., Maui, Hawaii The Me Car-t lz y Company, Anahc im MCK Dcvk lopent, Inc. , Lomas Santa I;% Mission Viejo Company, Mission Viejo . The Ncwport Devclopment Co. , Newport Beach Nissan Mot-or C0upoi.a t ion in U. S. A ., Los Anp Zes Nu-West DevcZoprncnt Corp., Nmport Beach . . --. Rancho Idatfliia, Ojai Reseme Oil Compnny, Apple Valley Safj'e l 2 & b'cildm, Imine an Diego Paci fie Land Co. , San Diego SeCu?s, Roebuck & Co. C. J. Segerstrom I: Sons, Costs Mesa . Sequoia Pacific - A Sozlilzem Pacific Company, Santa Ana Shaw & Talbot, Newport Beach Sproui! EizterpPises, Albuquerque, New Mexico A Zlumbra TechbiZt Construction Carp., San Diego Ticor Properties, Inc., Saizta Ana Toyota Motor Sales - U.S.A., Inc. Vanguard Bui ;Sdcrs, San Emas Walker & Lze Real Estate, Smta Ana Robe?& P. Vannington. Co..,. Inc., Imine Weatherfield liomes, Tustzn Uni v e T s i t y of Ca 7, i for ni a , Bc r7c e 1 e y I University of California, Irvine Resenrcjz Firms I Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park Pu b 7,; e A 9 e n c i e s /A s s o e i a t ZOXS * AZiso Waste Water Managenent Ageney, Laguna Beach Axdubon Society, Idiami, FZorida CaZifornia Bxi lders Council, Sacramento City of Zoea Raton, Florida City of Carlsbad, California City of Lakewood, California City of lieuport Beach, California City of Palm Springs, CaZifornia City of Santn Fe Springs, California City of Stanton, California Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commer.Za, Texas Los AngeZes World Trade Center Orange County EnvZronmental Nanagement Agency Oraizge County Fair Board ' Orlando Central BiLsiness District, Florida San bernardino County Fair Board State of California Division of Fairs and Expositions . RE C IO N.4 L I? CO ?? 0341 C A N/I. L; YS I S Stztdies of nationaZ/regionaZ economic criteria to provide guide Zines for regkona I business pZanning, long-range land use planning and urban grouth policy. - Major studies incZude: - 8 Phe Florida Regional Economy, Boca Ra$oiz 0 The Irvine Ranch Long Range Potential, Irvine 8 Kapa 2 ua Resort, Maui, Hawaii 8 Recession Impact/Real Property Investments, Phoensx REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS Analysis and projection of market support for specific areas covering consumer productPservice distribution and/or capital investment. Najor studies include: @ CadiZlac Auto Distribution; Southern California 0 Casino/Gaming Activity, Nevada 0 Horserac~ng/Parimutue 2 Wagering, Cati fornia 0 Jet Boat Market, California . Q Retail Merchandise Demand Analysis, Orange County COMEfUh~ITY DEVELOPMENT PLANiYING Studies related to general economic and market support cri- teria pertinent to community pZanning with respect to the optimum mix and absorption of Zand uses by type, the most advan t ag eo us r e s i dent i a 1 den s i t i e s an d re Z a t i ve I. o ea ti ons throughout the community, the essentiaZ recreational and environmental features in addition to a22 commarcial/service facilities. Mcjor studies incZude: 8 City of Boca‘Ratoh, Florida 8 Irvine-By-The-Sea, Newport/Laguna @ Scripps. Ranch, Sun Diego ‘..e Thibodo Ranch, San Dicgo @ * West Ranch, Ilouston i PROFESS.~OlllA L SERVICE PIRN ASSOCIATIONS (Projects completed on a cZieizt or joint venture basis) BaZZm/IdcFcu~Zan& Planners & Architects, Imine Robert Bein, b?il limn Frost & Associates, Newport Beach Boyle Engineerirq, Saxta Ana Hart, &vatsky R Stdee, San Francisco fimorth, Carro 2 Z & Anderson, San Jvm Capis tra7w Jennings-liaZ~Y~~nan-Hood Engineers, Santa Ana Dauid KZages and Associates, Newport Beach kdd, KeZsey & Voodard, IJeqort Beach Lungdm & Mi Zsun, Arehitects, Newport Beach Ed Lolirbach, MA, . NeGport Bzach Desmond I&h+ead, Inc., Newport Beach DzZe NaegZe & Associates, La JoZZa Peter Ostranhr & Susu Kishiyma Architects, Imine Fh. L. Pe1.e.ii-a Associates - PZanners, Architects, Phi Z Zips, 8randt & Redclick; Newport Beac h !?he PZanning Center, I?ewport Beach Engineers, Neqort Beach ' Jack G. Rad Co., I?ewport Beach Richardson-~~agy-~'artin, h7ewport Beach Rick Engineeri-ng, Sun Diego Alan Voorhees Associates, hlewport Beach J. L. Webb PZanizing, Akwport Beach Westec Services, he., !&.&in -WiZsey & €lam, Los AngeZes Lm Firms &Utes, Floyd, Pearson, 'Steward, Proenza & Richvan, Mi& FuZop, Rolston, Bu-ws & Meliittrick, Los AngcZcs Luce, Fomard, IianriZton & Scspps, San Diego O'Ne Zveny & Myers, Los Angc Zes Paul, Jastings, Jan0 fsky R Walker, Los AngeZes flienus, Robbins, Shenas and Shm, San Dieyo Ware, PZetchsr & Frcidenrich, PaZo Alto , . L. 0. * ' * SERVICES OFFERED NE w DE PEL o PME M T PROJECT PL A .r~ N I NC: - DeCaiZed studies for individua2 projects in the Zand develop- ment fieZd including subdivisions, shopping centers, office buitdings, industria2 palnks clnd reZated. Market- suppork data covers anticipated sales/absorption, price/rent ranges, square . footage, price pep square foot, Zand use mix and related fac- tors. Majoio studies inc Zude: 0 Irvine RegionaZ Cenker, lirrvine 8 I7ewyort Centez?, Iiewport Beach Q Reeves Ranch, San Clemente @ University City Cent-er, Sun Diego Village of Woodbridge, Irvine \ KED E VEL 0 PME N T PR 0 JE C?' PL A A' NI N G Analyses of redevelopment potential re2atec Zazd assembZage/vnZue and financial feasibility. incZude: to market support, Maior studies 8 Central Bus?:ness District, Orlando Q1 Central Business District, .Phoenix 8 Lido Peninsula, Newport Beach 0 McCuZlough Properties, Houston @ Pacific Ocean Park, Santa Monica HOUSING I?EBDS/HOUSING ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS Performance of housing inventory studies to determine availa- bility, price range and structural condition. concentrating on ability to pay versus rent/housing payment ZeveZs, the needs of larger families and the elderly. Prepara- tion of Iiousing Assistance PZan data for HCD fund applications. Major studies include: Demand anaZysis o city of Lakewood 8 City oY'Santa Fe Springs f i 0 ,L t t I i I SERVICES OFJ'1S~SE'D -_11 CO MMER C TA L - J I$ D U ST R IA I; S II'E L 0 -- C A T IO If - Analyses of altzrnatiue locutions for industrial and office spaee users covering general economic climate, Zabor demand/supply, wage rates, transportation, climate and related factors. Major studies include: d Industrial Location Criteria, Irvine Industrial j L t Complex, Irvine B Industrial DeveZopment Potential, Palomar Airport, Carlsbad Q Comparative Wage Rates, Orange County ROTEL- l7BSORT PLA llJNING Analysis of market support and economic feasibility for comme.rcia2 and resort hotel operations. Major studie*? inc Zude: ' 6$ Costa Smeralda, Sardinia 0 IrvZne-by-the-Sea, Newport/Laguna 8 KapaZua Resort, Maui, Hawaii - 6 Las Vegas Rotel-Casino, Nevada 0 Wa2t Disney PorZd, Orlando, Florida ECONOJ.1'1(7 IMPACT ANALYSIS .The effect on population, employment, income, expenditures and ' investment resulking from nev community developments as neu in- dustria2 plants, commerdial projects, recreation, facilities and residential developments.. Major studies include: educational 8 Irvine Industrial CompZex d University of CaZifornia, Irvine 0 Newport Center, Newport Beach Q Rancho Bernurdo, Sun Dicgo I FISCAL IMPA CT ANALYSIS Via computer sy the governing a detailed cost/r cits or net- ben tives. Major s sterns, the fiscal impact of new development on gcncics/school district ?:s performed. Highly evenue studies indicaie anticipated net defi- efits rcsul-tixg from land development alterna- tudies incZv.de.- @ Bizby Properties, Long Beach @ City of Boca Raton, Florida (Growth Management) 6 City of Rewport Beach, California (Fiscal Impact Annlysls System) 43 FoothilZs Property, PaZo Alto 0 University of California, Irvine FIN A)? c I A L A NA L YS r s -- Via computer systems, income and cash flow statements outline initial investment, loan disbxrsements, operating revenues/. costs and reZ.ated criteria. Major studies include: 0 ADMA Co., Inc. Properties, Sun D<egc i3 RoZstein Properties, El Tor0 ~ 0 KapaZtra Resort, Maui, Hawaii 0 Sequoia Pucific Properties, ,$anta Ana . @ Chevron Properties, Bakersfield - Dmand/Absorption Study. 8. &evrai Properties, Caxpcmteriu - Concbminiurn Study. 8 City of Boca Raton, Florida - Growth lilanagement. 8 City of Lakewood - Rousing Inventory. 8 City of Orlando, Florida - BD Redeve~opment. 8 City of Santa Fe Springs - Resident Survey. 8 County of Orange - Housing Element. L 0 Domingvzz Ranch, Santa Ana Canyon - Demand Analysis for Attached and Detached Units. IrtFine Rmch - Series of Market Analyses for all Housing Types. 0 KapaZua Resort, Maui, Hawaii - Condominim Study. 8 Kraemer Rmch, Santa Ana Canyon - Condominim Study. 0 Lido Peninszda, Newport BGach - Redevelopment Stub. 6 Lvsk Pi.operties, Carlsbad - Condominim and Mobile Home Park stu&8 @ Elanunoth, Cali fomia - Resort/Condominim Study. 6 EICK Pmperties, Perris Lake, Cali fomia - Apartment/Mobile Home Park Study. @ Mission Hills Ranch, San Juan Capistrano - Demand/Absorption/ Pricing Stu&. 0 NohZ Ranch, Orange - Condominium Study. @ Penasquitos Ranch, San Diego - Series of Housing Market Studies. % Reeves Ranch, Smz C'lementc - Demand Analysis for Attached and Detached U?aits. @ Scripps Ranch, EZ Toro - Ser&s of Studies. @ Thibodo Ranch, San Diego - Rousing Market AnaZysis. 0 Unimrsit-y CCty, San Diego - Series of Housing Market Studies. . 0 University of CaZifomia, Irving - Campus Impact on Housing Danm d. @ Whiting Ranch, EZ Tor0 - Housing Market AnnZycis. /~?IZOT?A L Colorndo River Phoenix Seo t t sda Ze ii'zrcson Anderson AppZe Valley Arcadia Bakers fie Zd Bel.muda Dilxcs Canyon Lake CarZsbad Cathedral City Chic0 'chino < CoZton Corom Costa Mesa Cupertino EZ Idonte E2 TOTO Fountain Valley FuZZerton Garden Grove Hemet Huntington Beach Ing Zew ood India2 J?e Z Zs Indio Irving La JoZla Lagw Beach Lakcwood Lancoster Long Beach Los AZamitos 2;os Ange Zes Ojai 0 "0th Yfssion Vie jo Mod~~st-0 Ne upor t Beach Ontaryio Palm Desert Palm Springs Perp-ls kke Palo Alto PaZomar Airport Ranch Bernardo Pancbo Cucamonga Raxcho f4irage Rancho Renasquitos Red Bluff Redding Riverside San Bemardino San CZemente San Diego' San Francisco San Jose San Jum Capis trano Santa Ana Santa Barbara Santa CZara Sunta Fe SpKngs . Santa Monica Stan ton Stoc kton Sunny vale Torrance Vent-ura Victorvi 2 le Vis ta Watsonvi 2 Ze Westmkter PRO JECI' LOCAITIONS Lknvcr Stearnboat Springs i 1 -1 FLORIDA Bo ea Rat on Or Zando Sarasota Twa I EIAWAII KapaZuu, Maui IDAHO Sun VaZZey L7aicago NEWDA Lake Tahoe Las Vegas aramid Lake Reno NEW I&XICO Albuquerque oKL/woM/1 Tulsa TEXAS Char Lake City Dal Zas Ilouston San Antonio WASHINGTON .. Seat t Ze * WASIIINGTON, D.C. t SENIOR STAFF RESUI"1ES Robert Dunham is the President of The Newport Economics Group and has direct responsibility for a2Z- corporate operations. is experience in economic uxialysis and market research spans twenty years. Major projects ha has directed include (11 a series of ccu- nomic and fiscaZ impact analyses for private sector urban deve Zopments, city/county governments and the University of California, (2) market support studies for many eommercial, CndustriaZ, and residentiaZ land development projects nation- wide, (31 hotel-resort feasibility studies in Arizona, CaZi- fornia, Hawaii and Nevada, and (4) Marina operation analyses in mewport Harbor and the Colorado River. Prior to joining The Newport Econom-lcs Group, Mr. Dunham was Manager of Economic Research for The Irvine Company. In that capacity, he directed economic research and market plan- ning for new urban deve Zopments inctuding housing, office buildings, hotets, aZZ types of retail/service facilities, and izdustriai! parks. Major individual projeets include Plew- port Center, The Irvine Regional Center, and The Irvine Coastal Sector. Before re locating to Southern California, Mr. Dunham uus Senior Economist for tho Del E. hrebb Corporation headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. He conducted economic and market research si5udies in the western states and.Centra1 Amer<ca covering a number of mazer retirement comnuncties, shopping centers, ho-te2s ana'gaming casinos. As an economist for the Arizona Employment Secur<ty Commtssion, he performed ZaBor market studies, plant location analyses and wage surveys for major employers. Mr. Dunham is a graduate of -the University of Arizona with a Bachelor of Science degree in Businesg Administration. He also completed subs tantia2 graduate work in Economics at Arizona State University. Mr. Dunham is activety associated with the NationaZ Association of Business EconomCsts. .* -.-. *. d PR EDH I C K H . G 0 OD - VICE PRESIDEMY Fred Good serves as Viee President of The Newport Economics Group with program management rcspons ibilities in urban devel- opment- projects and major investment analyses. Iiis research and munagemen5 ezperience covers virtually all phases of de- velopment-; residential, commercial, and industrial plant lo- cation studies. Key developmexts in whic7z he has been involved include Broad- way Plaza - a multi-use development in the Los Angeles CBD, the Pacific Trade Center - a high-rise office complex in Hono- lulu, high-rise condominiums for Twentieth Century FOX, Cen- tmy City and marina developments at Dana Point, The Chunnel Islands and Costa Sinera Zda, Sardinia, Present assignments include analyses of development potential! and disposition of properties in the San Pedro/Long Beach see- tor for the Commxnity RedeveZopment Agency in Los AngeZes, MP. Good's prior experience includes the position of Vice President, Urban Stzidies for Economic Research Associates in Los Angcles where he directed numerous market support and economic feasibili.Ly studies for government and pr$pate in- dus try. For the 50s Angeles CRA. Mr. Good was instrumental in devet- oping specific plans for the Beacon Street Project on the - Sun Pedro Waterfront, For the Los Angeles Harbor Department, he completed a comprehensive mu2tipl.e use economic and finan- cial development plan for San Pedro's Main Channel West Bank, Mr. Good initiated fhe economic revitalization plcln for the City of Soxth Pasadena (now underway); assisted in the housc ing-and commercial aspects of Pasadcna Is redevelopment; and evaluated the short and long term implications of the bond- King Barbor Marina. . ing program for the Urban Renewal Pi7oject at fiedondo Beach's ,Previously, he was Senior Economist for SRI Internc tionaZ Cn MenZo Park. Assignments covered a broa'd range of i?caZ estate and iirdustria2 projects. Mr. Good managed the econom-Cccs de- ' partment of the European Office of SRI for an extended period. He <s a BcrekcZy graduate and received an MBA from the Graduake ScliooZ of Busincss at Stanford. lie is a member of Lambda AZ- pha, the Intcrnational Honorary Land Economics Fraternity and the We s tern Ec o nomi c s A s s o c i a ti o n , SElJIOR ASSOCIATE Sandy liedrick is n Senior Associate with 22 years experience in the field of economic analysis related to real estate de- valopinent and land use decis<on making. Iiis expertise encom- passes a vide range of public and private real estate projects, inc luding recreation oriented deve Zopment, residential deve l- benefit aizalyses. Recent IJewport Economics studies directed by Mr. Iiedrick in- cZude a re-development proiect analyses in Long Beach, a 1000 acre custom home project- in 0iai and a variety of land use s-tudies in Lancaste?. i j opment, comme.rcial projects , socio-economic impact und cost/ ! Prior to jof?iing Newport Economics, Mr. Hedrick was a Vice President o$ Development Economics, Inc. (1971-1975) and a Senior Associate with Economics Research Associates in Los Angeles for JiZic years. In jQzc2ieation economics, Mr. Hedrick hbs evaluated the econom- ic feasibility of an 3,100 acre resort development at Steam- boat Springs, Colo:.ado, theme recreation parks near Denver, Colorado and Detroit, Michigan, resort-oriented condominiums, pr+vate and public maiqina development and recreation vekicle parks. . In housing analysis, Mr. Bedrick has conducted market and fea- sibitity studies for residential projects ranging from small single- family -t.racts and apartment projects to large master- planned community developments. CommsrcCaZ st-%dies have included numerous market analyses, feasibility and planning studies for shopping centers, rang-lng from small neighborhood centers to major regional shopping centers. He recentZy completed the market and feasibility analysis for a major theme specialty retail center in Denvcr, CoZorado. Broadway Plaza Center in downtown Los RngeZes. Mr. Ncdrick hoZds an M.B.A. from U.S.C. and a B.A. in economics from Stanford University. Ne participated in the feasibility analysis for the 0 JAMES Y. KEGA N SEN I OR A $30 CIA YE e Mr. Regan has management responsibility for a broad range of economic studics with specialization in resort development and urban studies. His consulting expeTQience spans twelve years with projects completed throughout many of the major metropolitan areas in the United States, Mexico, Central Amcpica and the Mediterranean. He recently completed a serCes of housing market analyses for the Orange County Housing E2ement. The emphasis was on effective versus non-effective demand and alternative housing program strategies. Previously, Jim Regan #as a Vice President - Real Zstate Programs for Eeonomics Research Associates in Los Angeles. In that capacity,’he directed a number of major community analysis programs. LocaZly, these included economic and fiscal irripact studies of the Coyote Hills development in Fullerton, portions of the City of Orange master plan, the Broadway Plaza project in Los Angeles and Westlake ViZZage. Addikionally, he has performed similar stzldies in Atlanta, Dallas, 2enver and Philadelphia. His reso2.t experience includes a number Df devezopments for FONATUR (tourism development agency) in Mexico, . ManzaniZZo, Puerto Va2larta and Acapulco. Hotel and PeZated resort activity feasibility studies have been conducted throughout the United States covering ski re- sorts in the Rocky Mozcntain area, hoteZ/goZf/tennis re- sorts i7i Palm Springs and retiremznt/resort communities in Sun Diego. Mr. Regan hoZds a B.S. in chemistry from Marquette Univer- sCty and an M.B.A.-Finance from the Warton Graduate School at* the University of Pennysylvania. He is a member of the American Land Development Association and a member of the AIA Regional Urban Design Assistance Team. I i i -I